The Cardinals were closing in on a win Monday, leading the Braves 3-2 as the teams headed into the bottom of the 8th inning. Just get through a clean inning, turn the game over to closer Ryan Helsley in the 9th, and slap hands after ending a four game losing streak.
Unfortunately … because the Cardinals are having a dreadful time of it these days … and something bad seems to be lurking in every shadow …
Splat!
Cardinals relievers Phil Maton and JoJo Romero cracked, and the Braves erupted for five runs in the eighth to open a 7-3 lead. The Cards staged a comeback in the 9th but fell short, losing by a run, 7-6 … and with that close call, the Cardinals fell to their fifth consecutive defeat.
The Cards (9-14) have won only 6 of their last 20 games and their .391 winning percentage ranks 13th among the 15 National League teams.
This has turned ugly.
I wanted to concentrate on a collapsing St. Louis bullpen – and yes, that’s a real thing and not an overreaction.
Why? Because the bullpen was the best part of the 2024 Cardinals and the No. 1 reason why the team outperformed its negative run differential to win 83 games instead of suffering a second consecutive losing season.
This year – here’s the obligatory “it’s early” reference – the bullpen is, without question, the worst part of the 2025 team.
Let’s get going …
THE BULLPEN COLLAPSE: The performance of the St. Louis bullpen has fluctuated over the first 23 games. Nothing unusual about that; most teams are still trying to mix and match their set of relievers and get an understanding of what new additions can or cannot do well.
Over the last eight games – three against the Astros, four vs. the Mets, and Monday’s 7-6 loss to the Braves – the Cards bullpen has absorbed quite a beating.
Not in all games, of course. The STL bullpen was terrible in the first game of that series before tightening up. That said, the Cards relievers have a 7.32 ERA in over the last eight games. And earlier in the season, the Cardinals had a few bullpen stinkers as well.
In the last eight games the STL security staff has been clubbed for six home runs, with opponents going deep every 13.3 at-bats. The opponents’ hitting line against St. Louis relievers over the last eight games is a .278 average, with a horrendous .582 slug.
OK, so what are the primary issues?
You got some free time?
There are many issues.
1) A big problem for the St. Louis bullpen is a weak strikeout punch. For the season, Cardinals relievers rank 27th among the 30 teams with an awful 19.2 percent strikeout rate. At a time when many MLB bullpens are loaded with imposing strikeout firepower, the Cardinals aren’t missing many bats. Their bullpen’s 10.2 percent swing-miss rate ranks 25th, and only four teams have yielded a higher contact rate on strikes than St. Louis. And the Cards relievers have walked 10 percent of batters faced – a looseness that doesn’t help their cause.
2) JoJo Romero isn’t a shutdown lefty and hasn’t been one for a long time. Romero is still strong against left-handed hitters, but right-handed batters pound his pitches with ridiculous ease.
Romero was sizzling early last season but his performance flipped and went down, down, down. (Though he did have a good August 2024.)
Let’s start with this: in 49 relief appearances since the beginning of June 2024, Romero has a 5.22 ERA, 5.84 fielding-independent ERA, and a frail 17 percent strikeout rate. He’s walked 10.4 percent of hitters over that time, and has been whacked for 1.8 home runs per nine innings.
Does that look like a shutdown reliever to you?
As I mentioned, Romero is still very good against left-handed hitters, zipping a 31.5 percent strikeout rate and ceding a .149 batting average when facing LH bats during his last 49 appearances.
He’s still valuable in the so-called “specialist” role … but it isn’t easy to spot him in those lefty vs. lefty confrontations – not with the rule that requires a reliever to face at least three batters when entering a game. And the opposing managers know this.
Here are the consequences: since the beginning of June 2024, a whopping 69 percent of the batters that have stepped into the box to go after Romero were right-handed hitters.
That’s trouble … big trouble.
These right-handed bats have boomed Romero for a .320 average, .403 onbase percentage and .583 slug in their 121 plate appearances since the start of June 2024.
On average, RH bats have smashed a home run against Romero every 14.8 at-bats over that time. And he has a scant 10.7 percent strikeout rate against them. In fact, Romero has walked as many RH batters (13) as he’s struck out (13) during the 49 appearances.
Romero has encountered 27 right-handed hitters in high-leverage situations in his last 49 relief outings, and they’ve cranked for a .350 average, .480 OBP, .850 slug and three home runs. And he has struck out only 3.7 percent of those RH batters in high-leverage scenarios.
Never mind all of that. He’s a “shutdown” lefty, right? That’s what some of the media people tell me.
3) Pulling Matthew Liberatore and Steven Matz from the bullpen doesn’t help. First of all, the Cardinals made the right decision when moving Liberatore into the rotation. He earned the opportunity, and he’s pitched very well as a starter.
At least Matz was in the bullpen for a while this season; he’ll rotate between relieving or starting based on the severity of the schedule. But even though he hasn’t shown much strikeout pop as a reliever this year, Matz had a 2.31 ERA in 11 and ⅔ innings when coming from the pen. Compared to the other left-handed relief options, I’ll take Matz.
With Liberatore slotted into a starting role, and during the time when Matz is utilized as a starter, the lefty relief duties fall to Romero and John King. In 15 combined innings this season, they have a 5.40 ERA and have walked more hitters (10) than they’ve struck out (8). Not good.
4) Ryan Fernandez is a mess. He was a gem of a pickup before the 2024 season when the Cardinals hoisted him away from Boston in the Rule 5 draft. As a rookie, Fernandez was a valuable component in forming the late-inning firewall that gave St. Louis one of the top bullpens in the majors last season.
Fernandez isn’t the same pitcher so far in 2025. Last season his slider was a dominant weapon, but Fernandez has lost the touch on his pitch this season, having been hammered for a .500 batting average and .833 slugging percentage so far. The overall hard-hit rate against Fernandez is an alarming 56.4 percent.
Ten appearances into the season, Fernandez has been punished for an 11.25 ERA, and he’s rated among the bottom 12 percent of all MLB pitchers in Pitching Run Value. Pitching coach Dusty Blake has been working with Fernandez to refine his pitches and manager Oli Marmol says Fernandez is getting close.
OK, but how long will that take? If not now, when will it make sense to ship him to Triple A Memphis to reshape his four-seam fastball and revive his ailing slider? I spoke with Marmol Tuesday on KMOX, and he didn’t seem ready to move on from Fernandez by giving the right a chance to pull it together down in Memphis.
And yet, on the other hand, when I asked Oli about using Fernandez instead of closer Ryan Helsley in the bottom of the ninth Friday in a tie-game situation against the Mets, Marmol said he didn’t want to put Fernandez into the game in the bottom of the 10th (if the score was still tied) because the Mets would bat with the “ghost runner” at second base. (You know, the extra-innings gimmick of starting off any extra inning with a runner on second base.)
With all due respect, if you can’t trust Fernandez to take care of business when he comes in with a ghost runner on second base … then why is he in the majors right now?
And if you don’t trust him in that tenuous situation, then why would you trust him to face Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso in the bottom of the 9th? Soto and Alonso became irrelevant when Lindor destroyed Fernandez’ second pitch for a soaring walk-off home run.
So unless the Cardinals announce they’ve moved Fernandez to Memphis, after I’ve finished writing this column, he’ll still be in the STL bullpen for Tuesday’s game against the Braves.
Which leads us to another issue…
5) WHERE IS THE DEPTH? The simple answer: it’s running low. Last season the Cardinals successfully traversed the seventh and eighth innings to set up closer Ryan Helsley for the save. When the procession was clicking, Helsley’s hellions included Andrew Kittredge (now gone), Romero (now faded) and Fernandez (now exposed.)
Last season the bullpen had Liberatore and a better version of John King. They received help along the way from a few individuals including Kyle Leahy, Chris Roycroft, Shawn Armstrong, Michael McGreevy, and Ryan Loutos.
Leahy is the only guy on that list that’s still with the big club – and prominently so – in 2025, and the versatile right-hander is off to a fantastic start. He could become a starting pitcher, possibly in 2026, because his command of a large variety of pitches is impressive.
In reality, the 2024 Cardinals didn’t have much quality depth in their minor-league reliever collection, but they got by because Kittredge and Fernandez pitched frequently and effectively and they could help shield Romero from right-handed batters.
As noted, King in 2024 was much better than he’s been early in 2025. Plus, again, that bullpen group included Liberatore, who worked 63 innings of relief.
This year, the only outside addition was free agent right-hander Phil Maton. Until get roughed up in Atlanta on Monday, Maton was doing a superb job. Marmol has been leaning on him. Will Maton hold up? We hope so.
Kittredge signed with the Orioles and hasn’t pitched because of a knee injury. Others have moved on.
There’s a shortage of attractive options down at Memphis, but I do have a question: hard-throwing righty reliever Riley O’Brien has mowed down 47 percent of batters faced this season with a strikeout. So why isn’t he here? If O’Brien isn’t deemed worthy of getting an opportunity with this troubled St. Louis bullpen, then how good is he?As usual, the Cardinals are very confusing.
The Cardinals hyped Roycroft this spring, but he lasted long enough to get violated for a 7.94 ERA in seven appearances, and was rushed south to Memphis.
In an industry where there’s a seemingly endless supply of relievers, the flat-footed and somnambulant St. Louis front office hasn’t come up with enough respectable pieces to fortify a wobbly bullpen.
And that’s why the early-season drop in quality from the likes of Romero, Fernandez and King – and Liberatore’s move to the rotation – has left this 2025 bullpen debilitated. At least up to now, anyway.
ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION? Matz could return to the bullpen to help alleviate a worsening problem. And when the Cardinals temporarily shift into a six-man rotation mode, Michael McGreevy could be used as the spot sixth starter. I asked Marmol about that scenario and he told me that the Cardinals have “discussed it” and are “toying” with an idea along those lines.
THE BULLPEN, BEFORE & AFTER
In 2024, the STL bullpen was the strength of the team. The Cardinals led the majors in saves. They had a 53-10 record when leading through six innings, a 64-4 record when leading through seven innings, and a 69-1 mark when leading after eight innings.
Just as important, the 2024 Cardinals had one of the best records in the majors (18-9) when tied after six innings … and that’s because their bullpen had the advantage in the late-inning relief battles.
The 2024 St. Louis bullpen ranked No. 7 among the 30 teams with a 3.64 ERA and was eighth in Win Probability added.
So far in 2025, the Cardinals rank 25th in bullpen ERA (5.08) and are 27th in Win Probability Added.
What we’re seeing is a steep drop in effectiveness and dependability.
Just look at basic late-inning stats.
The 2024 Cardinals had MLB’s second-best ERA (3.21) in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.
By contrast, the ‘25 Cardinals are 20th with a 4.66 ERA in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.
Last year’s sturdy rampart is becoming this year’s penetrable liability.
ABOUT RYAN HELSLEY: The 2024 NL Relief Pitcher of the Year has only three saves so far this season. That’s notable because he bagged 10 saves by the end of April last season.
Other than a blown save in Boston on April 6, this isn’t his fault. The Cardinal offense hasn’t staked the bullpen to enough leads, and when it happens the set-up relievers are having too many fumbles.
Marmol is steadfast in his insistence on using Helsley for one inning only. And in save situations only – unless the game goes to extra innings. With those “Ryan Rules” in place, it means Helsley hasn’t pitched since Wednesday, April 16.
Yes, the Cardinals have one of the greatest and most dominant relievers in the sport … and they aren’t using him.
(The writer pauses to smack his forehead and make a vague growling noise.)
JUST THE FACTS: With Monday’s frustrating loss in Georgia the Cardinals are 9-14, which is one game worse than their mark (10-13) through the first 23 games last season.
The Redbirds are stuck in a five-game losing streak, have lost six of their last seven, and have won only six of 20 games (.300) since sweeping three games from the Twins in the first series of the season. STL’s .391 winning percentage is tied with the Royals for 25th among the 30 MLB teams.
After losing to the series opener to the Braves, the Cardinals are 1-10 on the road. In franchise history, only one team has done more poorly in its first 11 road games of a season: the 1960 Cardinals, who were 0-11 and somehow recovered to finish 86-68.
Monday’s 7-6 defeat left the Cardinals with an 0-5 record in one-run games. Last season they had the NL’s second best record (29-22) in one-run games, so this is a big change.
With the season 23 games old, the Cardinals already find themselves 4 and ½ games behind the first-place Cubs and 3 games to the rear of the second-place Brewers in the NL Central standings.
The current projection from FanGraphs shows the Cardinals finishing with a 77-85 record for a .474 winning percentage.
POSITIVE: STARTING PITCHING! In their third series of the season, the Cardinals were flogged by the Red Sox in a three-game sweep at Fenway Park. The Cards starting pitchers were percussed for a 14.40 ERA in the three games.
In the 14 games since the end of the Boston tee-off party, St. Louis starting pitchers have combined for a 2.61 ERA that is third-best in the majors since April 7.
During this stretch of terrific pitching the Cardinals lead the NL in quality starts (8) and have been popped for just 0.54 home runs per nine innings. And in the last 14 games, Cards starters have restricted opponents to a .199 batting average, .249 onbase percentage and .297 slugging percentage. Outstanding.
Monday night Erick Fedde turned in his third consecutive quality start, giving up five hits, three walks and two earned runs in his 6 innings. In this 14-game run of (mostly) good starting pitching STL’s five best starters – Sonny Gray, Fedde, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore and Steven Matz – have combined for a 2.34 ERA.
Can this last? Well, the starters have a couple of things working against them. Collectively they’ve struck out only 19 percent of batters faced during the last 14 games. The ball is in play – a lot – and the starters have benefited from a combination of excellent defense and fortunate batted-ball luck.
The batting average on balls in play against the St. Louis starters since April 7 is just .234, the second-lowest in the majors over that time. That almost certainly will go up because the overall MLB batting average on balls in play against starting pitchers is currently .284.
Is this just a fortunate phase? Will there be a regression? We’ll have to wait and see about that. For now we can say that the starting pitching has been a welcome source of stability for the Cardinals in their last four-plus series. It’s a small sample – but a good one.
VIBE CHECK: Dizzy! Fuzzy! Disoriented! Since the Cardinals are in Georgia, give these boys some peach cobbler and a tall, cold glass of fresh lemonade. They need to relax a spell. It’s a shame Aunt Pitty Pat’s Porch has closed.
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns and videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (1120-AM, 104.1-FM), and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic.