Blues’ Path to a Playoff Comeback: Lessons from Games 1 and 2 Against the Jets

The St. Louis Blues face an uphill battle in their 2025 Stanley Cup Playoff series against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets, trailing 0-2 after losses in Games 1 (5-3) and 2 (2-1). Despite the deficit, the Blues showed flashes of brilliance—power-play finesse, faceoff dominance, and physical grit—that offer hope as they return to Enterprise Center for Games 3 and 4. Now, as they head back to the what is sure to be a raucous Enterprise Center for Games 3 and 4, it’s time to dig into the numbers and figure out how they can flip this series.

What the Stats Tell Us

Game 1 saw the Blues lead 3-2 after two periods, powered by power-play goals from Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, plus an even-strength tally from Oskar Sundqvist. But a third-period collapse—outshot 9-2 and outscored 3-0—handed the Jets a 5-3 victory, with Kyle Connor’s game-winner and Adam Lowry’s empty-netter sealing it. Game 2 was tighter, tied 1-1 after two periods, with the Blues scoring with one second left in the first thank to rookie forward, Jimmy Snuggerud, and controlling faceoffs (56.5% win rate). Yet, another late-game lapse saw the Blues register five shots on net in the final 20 minutes prevented the team from Jets forward Kyle Connor’s second postseason goal only 1:43 into the third period. 

In the opening games, the Blues had their fair share of positives to takeaway from. Their power play is at a remarkable 42.9% success rate (3/7 across Games 1 and 2), while they collectively delivered 82 hits. Robert Thomas extended his impressive 12-game point streak to 13 games. 

However, they faced several significant challenges, namely their defense. The top-pairing duo of Colton Parayko and Cam Fowler have combined for a minus-eight rating and have been caught on a few ugly plays seemingly standing around and appearing lost in their own zone before a Jets player scores a goal. The veteran defense that once carried this team and was a major component to their success in the regular season has faltered early in this playoff series. 

Strategies for Games 3 and 4

To turn the series around, the Blues must execute five data-driven adjustments. Blues head coach Jim Montgomery inserted Snuggerud to the top line for Game 2 and it helped produce multiple scoring opportunities for the team. In Game 2, the Blues had eight Scoring Chances For while Snuggerud was on the ice according to Natural Stat Trick, tied for the highest of any player on the team. However, these changes go beyond a simple player elevation in the lineup. 

As simple as it sounds, the Blues must sustain third-period structure to avoid Game 1’s collapse. Short shifts and slot-clearing will counter the Jets’ late surges, with home-crowd energy maintaining discipline. 

Second, boost 5v5 scoring by pairing Thomas, Kyrou, and Pavel Buchnevich to counter the top line of Winnipeg’s first line pairing of Alex Iafallo, Mark Scheifele, and Kyle Connor. The optics and underlying stats have not always been there for this trio but padding them together on the top line could help spark offense. Additionally, elevating Zack Bolduc with Brayden Schenn adds speed, and last-change advantage avoids defensive Josh Morrissey’s pair. 

Third, tweak the power play structure and pepper pucks on net. The Blues looked dangerous with two for three goals in the first period but looked frustrated when the Jets prevented scoring opportunities on St. Louis’ final three man-advantage attempts. Continue to maximize the power play with Kyrou’s one-timers and Buchnevich’s net-front presence to beat Hellebuyck. Get shots on net from the point when possible, particularly at Hellebuyck’s glove side where he has looked weakest. The Blues could even use the dangerous shot of Snuggerud who has been known to have a lethal one timer at the international and NCAA stage. 

Finally, elevate Binnington and slot defense. Colton Parayko and Philip Broberg must limit high-danger chances, while Binnington channels his 2019 Cup form.

The Path Forward

The Blues’ 2019 Cup run, sparked after early struggles, and their 4-1 regular-season win over the Jets prove they can compete. Three of four regular-season matchups were one-goal games, showing this series is winnable with execution. With Thomas and Kyrou leading, and Jim Montgomery’s defensive system, the Blues are poised to fight back.

To shift momentum, as simple as it sounds, the Blues must play a full 60 minutes, capitalize on special teams, and harness Enterprise Center’s energy.

READ MORE: Blues by the Numbers: Five Standout Stats from the 2024-25 Season