THE REDBIRD REVIEW
The Cardinals were flushed out of Flushing Meadows NY over the weekend, with the Mets sweeping four games from the visitors at the noisy Citi Field. The skunking dropped the Cardinals to 5-11 in their last 16 games.
Let’s state the obvious: the Mets are a superior team, funded abundantly in payroll and having a lineup loaded with star power. This season Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo are making a combined $144 million. According to Cots Contracts, STL’s opening 26-man payroll was just under $138 million for the entire team.
Yeah, so that matters. But are we supposed to cry about that and have unconditional pity on the Cardinals? Please. Before the Cardinals arrived in New York, the Mets had gone 2-4 in their previous six games against the Marlins, A’s and Twins. And here are the payroll rankings for those teams: Marlins 30th, A’s 28th, Twins 18th.
The Cardinals, in case you’re wondering, are No. 19 in payroll. But the Marlins – who have the puniest payroll in the majors – still managed to go 2-4 against the Mets so far this season.
The point is, a big payroll absolutely can provide a clear advantage over an entire season, but payroll size guarantees nothing. The 2023 Mets had MLB’s largest 26-man payroll by far ($331 million) and won only 75 games. The Mets’ massive payroll doesn’t justify the Cards getting swept in four straight at Citi Field.
The Cardinals played the Mets close in Friday’s 5-4 loss, and were tied late in Sunday’s affair before losing. OK, great. And while I appreciate the Cardinals for hanging with the Mets during the late innings in two of the four games, I must ask the question:
What is this, Little League?
Some of the media-driven narratives in this series annoyed me. Words like “feisty” were applied to the Cardinals.
We’re supposed to give the Cardinals a round of “attaboys” and frozen-custard treats for competing? Isn’t that what they’re paid to do?
Based on 2025 salary, the Cardinals had the more expensive starting pitcher on the mound in two games – Miles Mikolas and Sonny Gray – and the salary differential was fairly close when Andre Pallante opposed the Mets’ Griffin Canning on Thursday.
Over the four games, the Mets held the lead after 26 of the 36 innings played, and the teams were tied at the end of an inning seven times.
The Cardinals possessed the lead after only three of the 36 innings played in this series.
And that happened in the same game, with the Cardinals clutching a 1-0 lead after the second inning, a 1-0 lead after the third, and a 2-0 advantage through the fourth.
This, from STLtoday: “The Cardinals remain a feisty group. They have visited Citi Field before and been shellacked. Not this time. Two games were decided in the seventh or later. All four were decided by three runs or fewer.”
OK, round up the Redbirds … we’re taking the Cardinals out for some burgers and milkshakes as a reward for not getting massacred in New York.
This stuff is silly.
The 2023 Cardinals, a 91-loss team, went 2-1 at Citi Field that year. The only loss wasn’t close – the Mets won by five runs – but so what, because the Cards took the series.
The 2024 Cardinals did the same, winning two of three at Citi Field, and all three games were reasonably close.
Sure, the 2022 Cardinals went 1-3 at the Mets’ place. But c’mon, but we’re not really pointing to that as an example of bullies beating up on a weakling – are we?
The 2022 Cardinals won 93 games and a division title. They had Paul Goldschmidt, the 2022 league MVP. They had the younger Nolan Arenado, who finished third in the MVP balloting. And they had Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina in their farewell seasons. The 2022 Cardinals lost one of the games at Citi Field by an 11-4 score, but the other three results were close.
GOOD BASEBALL? A quote from Cards manager Oli Marmol after Sunday’s defeat. “They are a good ballclub across the way, and they straight up beat us four in a row. “There are no excuses. They were the better club, and they executed at a higher rate than we did. We got beat, bottom line. And that’s the (crappy) part, to be quite honest. You still played good baseball, it just wasn’t good enough.”
At least Marmol threw in a “no excuses” caveat.
But was the baseball – as played by the Cardinals – actually good?
In the four games the Cardinals averaged 2.25 runs per competition, batted .171, had only six extra-base hits, and struck out profusely – going down on strikes in 30 percent of their plate appearances. With runners in scoring position the Cards batted .222 and struck out 29 percent of the time.
Yo! This wasn’t 1969. This wasn’t Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Gary Gentry, Nolan Ryan and Tug McGraw pitching for the Mets against the 2025 Cardinals.
St. Louis pitchers had an overall 5.06 ERA at Citi Field, and the Mets battered the weakening Cards bullpen for a 7.27 ERA, .316 average, and 1.079 OPS. And when facing the Mets with runners in scoring position, Cardinals pitchers gave up 13 earned runs in the equivalent of 9 and ⅔ innings. That’s an 11.17 ERA, my friends.
If this qualifies as “good baseball” – your hitters scoring fewer than 3 runs a game, and your pitchers getting bonked for 19 runs in 36 innings – then the performance standards must be adjusted and raised to a higher level.
Then again, maybe the Cardinals just aren’t that good. (Especially on offense.) I’m not sure. More on that later.
DON’T PLAY THE AGE CARD: That was another theme to the weekend flop at Flushing Meadows.
As first baseman Alec Burleson said in a quote published at STLtoday: “You’ve got guys in here who are still trying to find their way. I throw myself in that group. Trying to figure out who we are, trying to establish ourselves, and move on from there. Close the gap? We’re not far.”
During the series, there were other references to the “youthful” St. Louis team. As Katie Woo (The Athletic) noted, Marmol and his coaches are doing a lot of teaching and instruction on the fly. And it’s more teaching that’s been done than in the recent past.
There’s always a place, and a need, for teaching instead of allowing lapses to go on without intervention. And over time, the extra attention to detail could pay off.
But this only goes so far. Granted, the STL position players have the sixth-youngest average age (27.1) in the majors. And the average age of Cards pitchers (30.3) is 10th highest in the majors for experience.
The Cardinals have more age and experience than the Brewers in both hitting and pitching. But the Brewers have a 12-10 record. The Cardinals are 9-13.
The same St. Louis hitters that struggled against the Mets have series wins over three more experienced teams this season: the Twins, Phillies and Astros. Plus, in six games against the Angels and Red Sox – two older opponents – the Cardinals averaged 6.3 runs per contest.
No one played the age card when the Cardinals won their three series. But all of a sudden the age card gets played 0-4 set at Citi Field? Get that out of here.
The Cardinals are inconsistent, yes, but that shouldn’t be attributed to age. The only hitters with fewer than 1,000 big-league plate appearances are Thomas Saggese, Victor Scott II, Jordan Walker, Luken Baker, Michael Siani, Pedro Pages, and Yohel Pozo. But among that group the only true regulars are Walker, Scott and Pages (with starting catcher Ivan Herrera still on the IL.)
The inconsistency applies to every age group on this team. No one put an emphasis on this team’s “young” age during the triumphs over the Twins, Phillies and Astros – or when the offense was piling up runs against the Angels and Red Sox.
So you don’t get to play the age card when the team fails to get a single win against the Mets in a long weekend series.
And how can anyone bring out the age card when Saggese – age 23 and with only 30 big-league games – was the best player the Cardinals had against the Mets? In 36 plate appearances for the Cards this season Saggese is hitting .400 with a .600 slug, four doubles, a home run and seven RBIs.
SLIDING, SKIDDING, SINKING: Since sweeping the three-game series from the Twins to open the season, the Cardinals are 6-13 for MLB’s second-worst record since March 31 – with only the Rockies doing more poorly over that time at 3-15.
Also:
* The Cardinals are 1-9 in their first 10 road games of the season. In franchise history, the only team that had a more futile road record through the first 10 games were the 1960 Cardinals, who went 0-10. The 1985 Cardinals were also 1-9.
* The good news, kinda, sort of, but probably not: The 1960 and 1985 Cardinals recovered from being early-season road kill to post winning seasons. Whitey Herzog’s ‘85 Cardinals won 101 games and the NL pennant. If you want to believe the 2025 Cardinals pull off something like that, well, there’s no fee for dreaming.
* The Cardinals and A’s have MLB’s worst record in one-run games at 0-4. Last season the Redbirds were 29-22 in one-run games; that ranked 5th overall and 2nd in the NL.
* The Cardinals are 3-10 this season vs. teams that currently have a record of .500 or better. At least that’s better than the Guardians (1-5), Pirates (1-11) and Rockies (1-11.)
BEFORE AND AFTER: The Cardinals were terrific offensively in the first nine games of the season. Of course, a nine-game sliver of schedule isn’t meaningful. That’s duly noted. That said, the only games we can evaluate are the games the Cardinals have played, so it’s fair to take note of the downward trajectory of their offense.
First nine games … and last 13 games, with MLB ranking in parenthesis:
Batting average: .304 (1st) … .230 (17th)
On-base percentage: .383 (1st) … .291 (13th)
Slugging percentage: .485 (2nd) … .337 (27th)
On-base + slugging: .868 (2nd) … .628 (26th)
Runs scored per game: 6.9 (2nd) … 3.2 (25th)
Now, in fairness to the Cardinals we’ve seen two different versions of their offense. The one from the first nine games, the other surfacing in the last 13 games.
THE PRESSING QUESTION: Concerning the Cards’ offensive identity, which performance – the early good or the recent bad – is closest to reality? Or is the answer somewhere in between? I think it’s too early to say.
THE BOTTOM LINE: If we put everything together – all 22 games played so far – the overall profile looks good. The Cardinals are tied for 7th in the majors with an average of 4.68 runs scored per game. And they rank among the top seven in batting average (.262), onbase percentage (.331), slugging (.401), and OPS (.632.) And going into the start of a new week, the St. Louis position players rank fourth in FanGraphs WAR with 4.6.
RISP TROUBLES: Over their first nine games of the season the Cardinals hit .318 with runners in scoring position which ranked second in the majors through April 6. But over their last 13 games the Redbirds have hit .215 with a .614 OPS when batting with runners on second and/or third base. That OPS ranks 27th in the majors since April 7.
We can separate STL hitters into two groups in RISP performance since April 7.
– Pedro Pages, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado and Thomas Saggese are a combined 17 for 53 with runners in scoring position for a .321 average.
– Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Yohel Pozo, Luken Baker, Michael Siani and Masyn Winn are a combined 9 for 68 (.132) in RISP situations.
THE WALKER-GORMAN WATCH: In the team’s last 13 games, Gorman and Walker have combined for 9 hits in 64 at-bats – that’s a .140 batting average – with a spiralling 38.2 percent strikeout rate. In other words, 2024 revisited. This was set aside as a “runway” season for the Cardinals, and Walker and Gorman were the hitters cited most frequently by president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.
AS THE ROTATION TURNS: After getting cudgeled by the Angels and Red Sox over a six-game stretch, Cards starting pitchers have recovered nicely. Over the past 13 games, with the Cards offense stalling, their starters gave the club a chance to win by pitching to a 2.58 ERA – which is third best in the majors since April 7. And the Fielding Independent ERA by the St. Louis starters (2.84) ranks second overall over that time.
DONOVAN STILL RAKING: Though Donovan “only” went 4 for 12 against the Mets, he still had a good series. His ninth-inning home run tied Friday’s game at 4-4, but Francisco Lindor won it for the Mets with a second-pitch bomb off reliever Ryan Fernandez to walk it off in the bottom half of the inning.
Donovan leads the National League with 31 hits, ranks second with a .356 batting average, is tied for 7th with 1.2 Wins Above Replacement, and sits at 11th in OPS (.927).
Among Cardinals that have at least 50 plate appearances, Donovan is tops in batting average, slugging (.540), OPS, OPS+, doubles (7), runs scored (14) and RBIs (13.) His .387 onbase percentage is a close third to Nolan Arenado (.395) and Lars Nootbaar (.392.).
VICTOR SCOTT II, COOLING: The second-year outfielder went 1 for 11 against the Mets, and it was part of a stretch of hitting .161 over the past 12 games. For the season, Scott’s average is down to .235, his onbase percentage has dropped to .303, his slugging percentage has decreased to .338. His OPS – as high as .859 on April 8 – has fallen to .641.
BULLPEN REPORT: As mentioned earlier, Cards relievers had a 7.27 ERA in the four-game series at Citi Field, during a damaging weekend that caused their season ERA to zoom to 4.64 ERA – which ranks 24th among the 30 bullpens. One thing that surprises me about the 2025 bullpen so far: the Cardinals have gotten off lightly. Granted, the Cards are 0-3 in games tied at the end of the sixth inning. But when the Cardinals have a lead through six innings they’re 9-1. When up after seven innings the Cards are 9-1. And they’re 9-1 when taking a lead into the ninth inning. This isn’t a stellar bullpen, but it could be worse. Which isn’t much of a compliment, is it?
RELATED AND DISCOURAGING NOTE: Reliever Ryan Fernandez had a 3.51 ERA and 25 percent strikeout rate a year ago in his fine rookie season. In his first 10 relief appearances this season, Fernandez has an 11.25 ERA and 12 percent strikeout rate. Oof.
The righthander had a nasty slider last season, limiting opponents to a .182 average and .295 slugging percentage, with a strikeout rate of 36.4% on the pitch. The Fernandez slider is batting practice for opponents in 2025; they've blasted the pitch for a .500 average, .833 slug, and have struck out on it only 20% of the time. Last season the average exit velocity against the Fernandez slider was 86.5 miles per hour; this season it's 95.7 mph.
Please stop the fight.
NEXT ON THE SKED: Three against the Braves at the ballpark in Smyrna, Ga. Atlanta got off to a horrendous 0-7 start but has rebounded to go 8-6 in the last 14 games and just completed a three-game sweep of the Twins over the weekend. The Braves rank 23rd in runs per game (4.67) and are 12th in runs allowed per game (4.14.)
In this series, the Cardinals will start (in order) Erick Fedde (3.43 ERA), Andre Pallante (3.22) and Miles Mikolas (7.64). The Braves counter (in order) with Spencer Schwellenbach (2.55), Spencer Stryder (3.60 in one start) and Bryce Elder (7.20).
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Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023 and has won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his writing and videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (1120-AM, 104.1-FM) and watch him discuss baseball with Katie Woo of The Athletic on the “Cardinal Territory” YouTube channel.