Recovering from the barbarity of a 1-5 road trip, the St. Louis Cardinals retreated to home base and went 4-2 against the Phillies and Astros.
The successful homestand featured exceptional pitching, first-rate defense, solid bullpen security, and plentiful offense with brawny slugging from Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado.
The Cardinals also had good timing. In both series the Cards stood 1-1 after splitting the first two games. But with a series victory on the line, the Redbirds won the third game both times and outscored the visitors 11-1.
This was crucial for a simple reason: had the Cardinals lost both of those third games they would be 7-11 right now instead of 9-9. And the Cards would have a 1-5 record in their first six series. But by taking both third games the Cardinals are 3-3 in their first six series.
St. Louis was subdued offensively in three of the six games … but as we say in the cliche corner, the other teams get paid too.
The Cards averaged 5.25 runs in their four wins. They defeated ace-caliber starting pitchers Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Framber Valdes by getting to the three slingers for 10 runs, 19 hits and a 6.00 ERA in 15 innings.
“We’re playing good ball, the guys are going about it really well, I really like our process and that’s all that we can control,” manager Oliver Marmol said after Wednesday’s success. “Obviously, you like taking four of six here at home, but I like how we’re doing it.”
Marmol liked how the Cardinals battled through tough at-bats and was pleased by his team’s “solid” overall play.
Despite playing in front of smaller crowds, the Cardinals are 8-4 so far at Busch Stadium. It’s certainly a different environment at the old ballyard.
The Cards rank 9th among 15 NL teams in average tickets sold (28,713) per home game. But even though the “red sea” of fans has turned into a “red sea” of empty seats, this group of highly motivated players are putting on an entertaining show at Busch.
OK. But now the Cardinals enter a credibility-check test of schedule. The men are getting back on the road, playing 11 of their next 14 games away from Empty Seat Stadium in downtown St. Louis.
In going 1-5 at Boston and Pittsburgh, the Cardinals were dunked on for a minus 19 run differential. Will they lose their way again?
Here’s a look at the itinerary that begins Thursday night:
4 games at New York: The Mets are 11-7 overall, but 5-1 at Citi Field. Their offense is 19th in the majors with an average of 4.0 runs per game. But the St. Louis hitters will be tested by a Mets pitching staff that leads the majors with a team 2.38 ERA. The Mets will start (in order) Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes against the Cardinals. St. Louis starters Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore and Sonny Gray will have to deal with Juan Soto and Pete Alonso.
3 games in Atlanta: The Braves opened the season with seven consecutive losses and have stabilized by going 5-6 in their last 11 games. It’s strange to see Atlanta stumble to a 5-13 record overall, but that includes a 2-11 mark on the road. The Braves are 3-2 at home. Through 18 games ATL ranks 26th in runs scored per game (3.39) and 24th in runs allowed per game (24th.) But ace starter Spencer Strider is back from elbow surgery after missing virtually all of 2024 – and the Cardinals will likely see him during
3 at home vs. Milwaukee: Ah, those sneaky Brewers are at it again. After beginning the season with an 0-4 record, the Brewers have won 10 of their last 15 games and are second in the NL Central with a 10-9 ledger. Over their 10-5 stretch Milwaukee had a team 3.07 ERA despite having EIGHT pitchers on the Injured List. But the Crew’s bullpen is more vulnerable after trading elite closer Devin Williams to the Yankees.
4 games at Cincinnati: this series ends on May 1, and it will be interesting to see how both teams stand after playing that day. The Reds are being led by future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona, and after a slow start his club is 7-3 in the last 10. Led by Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer, Cincinnati has the second-best starting pitching ERA in the majors at 3.05. And in recent days three important players were activated from the IL: closer Alexis Diaz, second baseman Matt McLain, and left fielder Kevin Hayes. The 9-9 Reds have struggled offensively, hitting .210 with the third-worst OPS+ in the bigs. Francona’s men have, however, averaged 4.7 runs over the last 10 games.
JUST FOR KICKS: Since the spunky Cardinals are 5-3 in their last eight games, I checked the playoff odds report at FanGraphs, and the Cardinals have a 16.4 percent shot of winning the NL Central and a 22.3% chance of making the playoffs.
LET’S TROLL: It would be kind of funny to see the Redbirds make the playoffs and have about 23,000 fans show up for each game inside their half-cavant baseball venue … you know, the place that, once upon a time, used to be filled to capacity by The Best Fans In Baseball. Cue Sinatra’s classic, “There Used to Be a Ballpark.”
LET’S TROLL AGAIN: And what would I say about that? Well, I probably would state the obvious: St. Louis is a hockey town now. And I would add that, at best, the Cardinals rank 3rd in fan popularity in St. Louis behind the beloved Blues and our adopted NFL team, the Kansas City Chiefs. THE CHIEFS? Yes, absolutely. Just look at the booming TV ratings for Chiefs telecasts in the St. Louis market.
(Excuse me but I need to pause and wink before I resume writing.)
CARDS VIBE CHECK: Smoove and in the mood to buy some Krewe sunglasses.
ROTATION ON POINT: The Cardinals were elevated by divine starting pitching on the homestand. Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore and Miles Mikolas collectively averaged 6 innings per start and sculpted a 1.25 ERA against the Phillies-Astros.
This was part of a longer stretch; in their past nine games the St. Louis starters combined for a 1.86 ERA and suppressed opponents for a .163 average, .218 onbase rate and .228 slugging percentage. In the nine games the starters faced 197 batters and ceded only two home runs.
In the nine-game art display of retro pitching, the Cardinals starters gave up more than three earned runs in only one of their nine starts — and allowed no more than a run in seven of the nine assignments. It was a fantastic tribute to 1968.
HOWEVER: It wasn’t so nice for Cards when they faced the Angels and Red Sox earlier this season. STL starters had an 8.56 ERA, their relievers had a 7.07 ERA, and the staff as a whole was shredded by for a 7.07 ERA.
Contrast that to the pitching performance against the Twins, Pirates, Phillies and Astros: 2.08 ERA by the The Lou starters, 2.41 ERA by the relievers and an overall staff ERA of 2.20.
WELCOME TO PLANET LARS: On the 4-2 homestand, leadoff-man trigger Lars Nootbaar had a 27% walk rate (!) .500 OBP, .579 slugging percentage, two doubles, two stolen bases, a game-winning three-run HR and six runs scored.
Among the 25 MLB leadoff hitters that have at least 40 plate appearances, Nootbaar is first in walk rate (18.1) and 2nd in OBP but also backs up his onbase skills with a .463 slugging percentage that ranks 6th.
One advanced metric that assesses a hitter’s performance is park-and-league adjusted runs created, better known as wRC+. The league average wRC+ is 100. Here’s the list of the top five No. 1 hitters in the majors so far, based on a minimum 40 plate appearances:
Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, 236
Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres, 193
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers, 158
Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals, 154
Steven Kwan, Guardians 147
One more Noot Note: In 479 plate appearances in the leadoff spot since the start of the 2022 season, Nootbaar has a .370 onbase percentage, .461 slug, .830 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 32 percent above league average.
CHARTING THE STL OFFENSE: The fellers have been shut down a few times this season, which we can say about all 30 teams. But the state of the Cards’ offense remains vibrant and strong.
As they begin their seven-game road adventure the Cardinals rank 5th overall and 3rd in the NL with an average of 5.2 runs per game. They have MLB’s top batting average (.280) and onbase percentage (.348) — and are perched third in OPS (.783), and 4th in slugging (.435).
The Cards’ contact rate (75.5%) is 5th best in the majors. St. Louis also ranks 11th in home runs (20) and 6th in doubles (37.) I’d like to see a few more bases on balls; the Cards are 17th in walk rate.
A paragraph of caution: The Cardinals currently possess the best average in the majors on batted balls in play at .329. That’s an inflated figure that will likely drop. Last season only five teams had a balls-in-play batting average of .300 or better, with a high of .314 by the Bostonians.
GETTING AHEAD ON THE COUNT: With approach being emphasized by batting coach Brant Brown, Cardinal hitters have put extra focus working the count to their advantage this season. And so far, the offense is better because of it.
A few stats here, all based on swinging and connecting and putting the ball in play when ahead in the count:
– The Cards have a .307 batting average that ranks 4th in the NL in 5th overall.
– Their .542 slugging percentage is 3rd in the NL, and 5th overall.
– Their 11 home runs when ahead in the count are 3rd in the NL and tied for 4th overall.
– Their strikeout rate when ahead in the count (10.1%) third lowest in the NL and fifth lowest overall.
THE DEFENSE IS SAVING RUNS: The Cardinals’ pitching staff can’t rely on a high strikeout rate to put hitters away. But Cards pitchers can rely on a defense that’s doing a good job of preventing runs.
Through the first 18 games, the Cardinals rank first in the majors with 12 Outs Above Average, and that’s a sign of excellent range in getting to balls in play. They’re also rated No. 1 in the majors for Fielding Run Value, have MLB’s highest defensive rating (by far) at FanGraphs, and are tied for 6th in defensive runs saved.
One related note to share: watch out for the Reds. Francona already is making a difference. Before spring training he vowed to clean up the Reds’ raggedy defense and goofball baserunning.
Well, now. Last season the Reds had the worst defense in MLB based on their minus 30 defensive runs saved. Through 18 games this season the Reds are No. 1 in the majors with +15 defensive runs saved.
The 2024 Reds lost more runners on the bases (66) than any team in the majors. They’re getting smarter about this in 2025 but still run into too many outs. Francona’s cleanup will take more time.
THE DAILY DONNY: Brendan Donovan leads the NL in most hits (27) and batting average (.380) and is among the Top 10 of NL hitters in onbase percentage (.416), OPS (.965) and WAR (1.1). During his current 12-game hitting streak Donovan has a .478 average with a 1.184 OPS.
Thank you for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was a 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame and has won multiple national awards for column writing. You can access all of his writing and videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” on KMOX (1120-AM, 104.1-FM) and watch him discuss baseball with Katie Woo of The Athletic twice a week on the “Cardinal Territory” YouTube channel.