Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (8-9) vs Houston Astros (8-9)
Time: 12:15pm CT Wednesday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Steven Matz (0-0, 2.31 ERA) vs Ronel Blanco (1-1, 6.94 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Astros -112, Cardinals -108
Total: 8.5 (over -105, under -115)
Getaway Day For Cards, Astros
A pair of 8-9 teams meet today when the St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros wrap up their series at Busch Stadium in a weekday afternoon getaway day for both teams.
Steven Matz makes his first start of the season as the Redbirds try out a six-man rotation. Ronel Blanco will be on the bump for the Astros coming off a win over the Angels in his last start.
Matz Back In Rotation
Matz returns to a role as a starter where he has a 4.35 career ERA as opposed to a reliever where he has made 28 appearances in his career with an ERA of 2.82. Matz has also been crushed by Houston hitters in the past, as current Astros have 16 hits in 43 at-bats against him (.372 average) with 5 home runs, a .400 on-base percentage, and a 1.144 OPS.
Matz hopes to continue a dominant run of form by Cardinals starting pitchers. Over the last 7 games, Redbirds starters have pitched 42 innings and have allowed just 5 runs on 20 hits and 13 walks - that’s a 1.07 ERA and 0.78 WHIP.
Blanco Due For Positive Regression
Blanco had an outstanding 2024 season for Houston with a 13-6 record and a 2.80 ERA in 167.1 innings. With a 6.94 ERA so far this season, Blanco is certainly due for positive regression to the mean to have that ERA come down. His xERA this season is 4.30 to go along with a 3.19 FIP and 3.19 xFIP.
Despite their impressive run over the last several years, the Houston offense hasn’t done much so far in 2025. The Astros have scored 3 runs or fewer in 12 of their 17 games this season.
My Pick
I have to hold my nose a bit in making this pick because I don’t trust Matz as a starter and I don’t expect the Cardinals’ offense to get completely shut down two games in a row. But on a weekday afternoon getaway day for both teams, I feel obligated to bet the first five under.
The “weekday afternoon getaway day for both teams” spot is one I almost always target for a first five under, and it’s 2-0 so far in Cardinals games this season. The Redbirds fly to New York after the game and get to spend the evening hanging out in one of the best cities in the world, while the Astros get to fly home and enjoy an off day tomorrow. In my gambling experience watching baseball, these situations tend to lead to quicker games with hitters swinging earlier in counts.
It doesn’t hit 100% of the time obviously, but it’s a trend I’ve noticed over the years and a play I’ll be betting here today.
Pick: Under 4.5 in the first five innings at +100 on DraftKings (bet to -110)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer