After drumming Houston starting pitcher Framber Valdez for 10 hits and seven runs in Monday’s 8-3 kayo of the Astros, St. Louis sticks were muted Tuesday in the second of three games between the teams at Busch Stadium.
Astros 2, Cardinals 0.
The Cardinals could not do much to cause discomfort for Houston starter Hunter Brown. He looks like an NFL tight end and brings the heat with high-velocity fastballs that would make Nolan Ryan smile. Brown, a tough foe, now has a 1.50 ERA after four starts this season. He ain’t fooling around out there.
With the loss, the Cardinals slipped back under .500 and are 8-9 going into today’s 12:15 p.m. start.
A victory by the Cardinals is highly recommended. After Wednesday’s series-deciding scrap, the Redbirds will play 11 of their next 14 games on the road. The Cards were roadkill in their first trip of the season, losing five of six games during their Boston-Pittsburgh itinerary.
VIBE CHECK: Uncertain. To be determined. With a win today, it could be a feel-good beer commercial type of mood. It could also be a New York and Sinatra vibe because the day ball gives the Cardinal athletes an opportunity to touch down near Gotham this evening with plenty of time to experience the delights of the city that never sleeps. Take your time with those at-bats today, boys. Don’t rush through it. New York stays open all night.
IT’S A GAME OF ADJUSTMENTS, I: In Monday’s mugging of Valdez, the Cardinals picked up on something early: Houston’s lefty didn’t have his killer curveball working in his behalf. The Cardinals adjusted and went hunting for the curve. Before Monday, that plan was a non-starter.
As the Houston Chronicle helpfully noted, opponents had gone 1 for 24 with 17 strikeouts (!) against the Valdez curve in his first three starts. But Valdez couldn’t get his curve to obey his wishes on Monday, leaving the pitch up in the zone too often. And the Cardinals took notice.
Valdez threw 24 curveballs to the Cards in Monday’s matchup. It took the home team a while to sharpen their radar, but they eventually found the pitch they were looking for.
The Cardinals had five hits in the nine at-bats that ended with Valdez spinning the curve. The cash-in hits included two doubles (and one RBI) by Nolan Arenado, and a critical two-run double by Pedro Pages. In all, the Cardinals plated four runs in connecting on the curve.
Including all other pitches, the Cardinals ripped Valdez for five extra-base hits, the most he’s given up in a game in his 139 major-league starts.
GAME OF ADJUSTMENTS, II: Back to Hunter Brown. Before Tuesday’s game, Brown hadn’t thrown his sinker to a left-handed hitter all season. The Cardinals are loaded with LH bats, and five lefty hitters were in the starting lineup to face the right-handed Brown.
Well, Brown and the Astros evidently thought it was a good idea to go with a different plan against the Cardinals. Brown threw 27 sinkers overall, with 18 coming against LH batters.
The left-handed bats went 0 for 5 against Brown with a couple of strikeouts. Lars Nootbaar struck out and later hit into a ground-ball double play when Brown tunneled a sinker. Alec Burleson popped up on a two-out Brown sinker that stranded runners on first and third base.
Cardinals’ right-handed bats went 1 for 4 against Brown’s sinker, with the only hit coming on a single by Arenado. In a key second-inning at bat, Brown zipped the sinker to get Pedro Pages to hit a double-play grounder.
Brown has the old reverse-split thing going for him. During his MLB career, Brown (a righty) has held LH batters to a .220 average with a 25 percent strikeout rate. RH batters have had more success against him. No one had any real success against him in Tuesday’s start.
ERICK FEDDE + MILES MIKOLAS. Have you noticed how similar they are in many ways? It’s interesting to me. Mikolas draws intense criticism for his ineffective pitching, and Fedde kind of glides through with little negative attention.
Fedde had a Fedde start against the Astros on Tuesday night inside the abandoned ballpark in downtown St. Louis. The Astros managed to score one run in six innings against Fedde, who blanked the visitors through the first five innings.
It’s fascinating to me.
We know that Mikolas lacks a strong strikeout punch, a weakness that’s frequently pointed out by fans and media. He’s near the bottom for MLB strikeout rate listings for starting pitchers.
Now, let’s look at the strikeout/walk rates for both gents early this season:
Strikeouts per 9 innings: Mikolas 6.9, Fedde 4.3.
Walks per 9 innings: Mikolas 3.5, Fedde 4.7.
Fedde has a slightly better swing-miss rate (8.4%) than Mikolas (7.0%) but both are below the league average. They don’t scare hitters. Both pitchers serve up a high contact rate. Both limit home runs.
Their respective hard-hit rates are telling: Mikolas 35.6 percent, Fedde 52.2%. Fedde is actually more vulnerable than Mikolas. The average exit velocity against Fedde is just about three mph higher than the average velo against Mikolas.
So what gives? In four starts Fedde has a fine 3.43 earned-run average, and Mikolas has been pummeled for a frightful 9.00 ERA in three starts.
Here’s the most significant difference between them so far: opponents are hitting .183 in batted balls in play against Fedde and .356 against Mikolas.
As you can see, one dude has fortunate batted-ball luck, and the other has extremely unfortunate batted-ball luck. Fedde, for example, has allowed a .214 average on his sinker and an .074 average on his cutter – but both pitches have been hit hard by opponents, usually into the glove of a Cardinal fielder.
This is reflected in each guy’s expected ERA this season: 4.18 for Mikolas, and 5.00 for Fedde. Mikolas also has a much lower fielding-independent ERA (2.64) than Fedde (4.88.)
I don’t want to make excuses for Mikolas, the increasingly hittable starter over the last two-plus seasons.
In 2024 Fedde had his best MLB season for the White Sox and Cardinals, but he earned his 3.30 ERA because of a higher strikeout rate and the volume of soft contact against him. But in the new year, the early picture looks different for Fedde.
Fedde deserves credit for making good pitches to wriggle out of two bases-loaded predicaments to hold the Astros to just one run. Another time, he pitched his way out of trouble to leave a runner on third. It could have been a helluva lot worse, and in fairness to Fedde he’s been scratched for only one run over 12 innings in his last two starts.
In the Mikolas/Fedde comparison we can see a more accurate depiction of their pitching quality in the early weeks of 2025.
Expected ERA: 4.18 for Mikolas, and 5.00 for Fedde.
Fielding Independent ERA: Mikolas 2.64, Fedde 4.88.
Takeaway message? Perception can be different from reality.
NOTES ON MY SCORECARD
The Cardinals had chances to score Tuesday but had one hit in seven at-bats with runners in scoring position.
Alec Burleson has a poor .327 slugging percentage overall this season. And it’s even lower (.320) against right-handed pitchers. Per wRC+ Burleson, who bats left, is 14 percent below league average against right-handed pitching so far this season.
Nolan Gorman is 1 for 8 with two walks and three strikeouts since returning from the IL.
Steven Matz makes his first start of the season Wednesday. In his first three seasons as a Cardinal, Matz had a 4.88 ERA in 33 starts and was smacked for a .277 average, .330 onbase percentage and .446 slugging percentage.
That’s all for now.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was a 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame and has won multiple national awards for column writing. You can access all of his writing and videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” on KMOX (1120-AM, 104.1-FM) and watch him discuss