Game Information
Missouri Tigers (12-4) vs Auburn Tigers (10-6)
Time: 6pm CT Wednesday
How to watch: ESPN2
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Auburn -1.5
Total: 153.5
KenPom Projection
Auburn 80, Mizzou 79
Battle Of Tigers In Columbia
The Missouri Tigers look to continue their home dominance when they host the Auburn Tigers tonight in Columbia.
Missouri is 10-0 at home this season and 28-2 at Mizzou Arena since the beginning of last season. That’s the second-most home wins in the nation during that span.
Hit Your Free Throws!
Missouri fell short of accomplishing its first ever 3-0 start in SEC play, falling 76-69 at Ole Miss last time out. The Tigers were done in by their free throw shooting, which has been a problem all season long. Mizzou shot 12-of-24 (50%) at Ole Miss and ranks 334th out of 365 teams in the country at 66.3% for the season.
The Tigers shoot the ball well from the field though. They are 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and face an Auburn team that ranks 226th in effective field goal percentage defense.
Auburn Plays Tough Schedule
Auburn may be 10-6, but don’t be fooled into thinking this team isn’t potent. The Tigers have played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, including non-conference losses to elite teams in Houston, Michigan, Arizona, and Purdue.
Auburn brings the 9th-best offense in the nation to Columbia, according to KenPom. Auburn really gets after it on the offensive glass, as the Tigers rank 10th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
My Lean
This has the feel to me of an over game with two teams that have much more impressive offensive profiles than they do defensive ones.
KenPom agrees with a projected final score of 80-79 in favor of Auburn. However, the betting market does not agree. This total opened at 156.5 and has dropped three points to the current number of 153.5.
I would tread lightly on this game, as it’s a toss-up from a side perspective and the drop in the total doesn’t make sense to me. But I expect both teams to play well offensively tonight to help this game creep over the total.
Lean: Over 153.5 at -108 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every week on the STL Sports Central YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Get Eric's picks for all sports by following him in the Action Network app with the username "esontag". Disclaimer