I had said on the radio Tuesday afternoon that Game 1 against the Washington Nationals felt like as much of a 'must win' for the St. Louis Cardinals as you could possibly have at this point in the calendar. It set up well from a pitching matching standpoint, St. Louis is the better team, it was playing at home, etc.
Ultimately, the Cardinals secured that win, as I felt was necessary to do in order to find some momentum in the final week before the All-Star break.
On to Wednesday. Perhaps I'm overstating things, but with the way things line up, this matchup would be one of the more 'satisfying' wins of the Cardinals season if they can get it. What do I mean by that?
Firstly, the timing. The Cardinals have had their fair share of struggles recently, so locking up a series win in the final week before the break would provide at least a momentary respite from some of the underlying concerns folks have about this team. Bag wins where you can get them, right? It would add some pep in the step to win a couple in a row after the way the previous road trip finished up.
The Cardinals are facing a lefty, which has generally been a problem this season. But MacKenzie Gore is a lefty against whom the Cardinal lineup has individually seen some success, with Willson Contreras (1.667 OPS), Nolan Arenado (1.343 OPS), Brendan Donovan (3-for-10), Masyn Winn (1.194 OPS) and more having solid career stats against him.
Gore is also a lefty against whom the collective plate approach should thrive if the St. Louis lineup is approaching plate appearances like it does when it's at its best. Gore has a reasonably respectable walk rate this season, averaging just 2.9 BB/9 on the season. But his career walk rate of 3.6 BB/9 is something the Cardinals can exploit. Recently, Gore has been a little less pinpoint with his control, walking 11 total batters over his past three starts. Gore has walked at least three batters in three straight appearances.
If the Cardinals can work counts on Gore, there's room to push his pitch count in the early innings and get into the worst bullpen in MLB a little earlier in Wednesday's proceedings. Washington's bullpen has a collective 5.76 ERA this season, which ranks 30th in MLB.
It's a lefty, so anything goes, but there's certainly a path for Brant Brown's group to succeed in this matchup and accomplish that goal of getting Gore to his pitch count in a hurry.
As for the Cardinals' starter, Andre Pallante has middling numbers on the campaign, but has looked better of late. Pallante has delivered three straight quality outings, allowing only two earned runs over 18.0 innings in that span.
So in the end, you've got several elements of this matchup that do tentatively favor the Cardinals--but only if they execute a game plan effectively. If not, we'll likely be discussing the continued storyline of the club's struggles against lefties, or perhaps Pallante's regression back toward his season-long numbers.
A win on Wednesday would secure a series win over an inferior opponent, with the chance to sweep available to them on Thursday.
Though you should generally beat the teams that aren't as good as yours, this particular pitching matchup is no slam dunk for the Cardinals, which is why it would be pretty satisfying to see the Cardinals come away with it.