You’ll get no spin from me here. I don’t do “Happy Talk” nonsense just to score cheap points with the team, the players, or management.
I don’t keep a scorecard of my so-called negative opinions, and compare them to so-called positive opinions. I have no quotas. I never think “Oh, I’ve been blasting the Cardinals pretty hard lately, so let me scrounge around for some cheerful, encouraging stuff to throw in just to show these people that I’m “fair.”
I’ll leave that to the softies.
If a team is bad, in certain areas, then those areas are bad. I see no reason to say otherwise and try to finesse something “positive” in there.
There’s no reason to force some fanboy-homer-apologist load of bollocks into the discussion. If JoJo Romero and fellow reliever Ryan Fernandez are bad – and they’re really, really, really bad – it’s OK to go with the facts in a straightforward view.
On the other hand, when a team has swerved off course and is struggling to string wins together, and is futile on the road, and has an atrocious bullpen and an offense that isn’t hitting for much power lately – not to mention one of the worst front offices in the majors – it doesn’t mean EVERYTHING is bad.
Even in the worst of seasons, there are pitchers and hitters who rise above the mediocrity around them to turn in impressive performances. Why should I ignore that and withhold praise? Don’t blame the standouts for the Cardinals’ 10-15 record or the current stretch that’s featured only 7 wins in the last 22 games.
So yeah, even though the Cardinals are having many, umm, difficulties … I genuinely like some things about this team. So it’s time for some real – not fake – Happy Talk!
THE BERNIE AWARDS
GOOD PERFORMANCES...IN A LOSING CAUSE!
1. Matthew Liberatore: The lefty pitcher is thriving in his first legitimate opportunity as a starting pitcher. I don’t know if we realize how good Liberatore has been – so far – this season. So I am pleased to provide the numbers – because I am Stat Boy.
Because of his excellent strikeout-walk ratio, the quality of Liberatore’s pitching is measured more accurately by using Fielding Independent ERA – better known as “FIP.”
* Liberatore’s 1.86 FIP ranks fourth among MLB pitchers that have worked at least 25 innings so far this season. The only left-handed starter with a better FIP than Libby is Philadelphia’s Jesus Luzardo at 1.77.
* Liberatore is averaging 6.3 innings per start. Only three MLB starting pitchers have, on average, gone deeper into games this season.
* Liberatore has a solid 24.5 percent strikeout percentage. And his walk rate, only 2 percent, is second-best in the majors to Nathan Eovaldi.
* Libby’s strikeout-walk ratio (12.0) is No. 2 among starters behind Eovaldi’s 15.5. Yes, having 24 strikeouts with only two walks is damn good.
* Liberatore has controlled left-handed hitters to the tune of a .190 batting average and a 39 percent strikeout rate. Right-handed hitters did some damage in Liberatore’s first two starts – nothing drastic – but in his last two starts Libby has adjusted to hold them to a .150 average with a .250 slugging percentage and 25 percent strikeout rate.
* Libby has supplied a quality start in three of his four assignments.
This is very fine pitching from Liberatore. I don’t think it’s a fluke because he’s really talented. But he has to have a more effective four-seam fastball and sinker to use against right-handed hitters, and that’s just one of the challenges Liberatore faces going forward.
2. The overall starting rotation: Through the first 25 games the Cards starters rank 13th in the majors with a 3.89 ERA, are third in walks-hits allowed per inning (WHIP), and rank No. 2 with an average of 0.92 home runs per nine innings. And the STL starters are tied for second in the majors with 11 quality starts. Their average innings per start (5.5) is tied for fourth in the bigs.
This St. Louis group of starters pitchers – Liberatore, Sonny Gray, Andre Pallante, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz – has been especially good over the last 16 games, posting the most quality starts (9) in the majors since April 7.
Over that time the rotation ERA (2.71) is fourth overall, they’re top five overall in walk rate, home-run rate, and WHIP. One of my go-to metrics for pitcher evaluation is Win Probability Added, and the Cards starters are No. 12 in WPA for the season and No. 3 over the last 16 games. Heck, Mikolas has chipped in with a 2.87 ERA in his last starts.
The sad thing? When the Cards have gotten a quality start from one of their guys this season, the team record is 4-7. And that’s despite the fact that their pitchers collectively had a 1.57 ERA in the 11 quality starts. The bullpen and offense have undermined the good starting pitching.
Something to watch: the one real weakness of this starting-pitching crew is an 18 percent strikeout rate that ranks 25th overall. That makes them vulnerable to an unfavorable change in batted-ball luck. So far the batting average against the STL starters on balls in play is .255 – the fourth-lowest by a rotation. The defense behind the starters is good, and the coaching staff has done a superb job of positioning the defenders. But batted-ball luck can be fickle.
3. Speaking of that St. Louis defense: the Cardinals lead the majors with 17 Outs Above Average – which means their defenders, as a group, have the best range in the majors. The Cards are also No. 7 overall in defensive efficiency, having gotten outs on 72 percent of the batted balls in play.
4. Brendan Donovan: He’s off to a great start, leading the lineup-regular Cardinals in batting average (.356), onbase percentage (.392), slugging percentage (.533), OPS (.925) and Wins Above Replacement (1.2.) Donny is also tied for the team lead in extra-base hits, is second in RBIs (13) and is hitting a sweet .370 with runners in scoring position.
Among qualifying National League hitters Donovan ranks second in batting average and 11th in OPS. He’s playing well defensively, posting two defensive runs saved as he spends time at second base, shortstop or left field.
5. Kyle Leahy and Phil Maton: Ryan Helsley hasn’t pitched much this season because manager Oli Marmol limits him to save opportunities. And with just about every other reliever in a horrendous bullpen imploding, Leahy and Maton have been the two reliable sources of ability and stability. In 26 combined performances that have covered 27 and ⅓ innings, they’ve collectively pitched to a 2.30 ERA with an awesome 30.6 percent strikeouts – and between them the right-handers have walked an average of only 1.6 hitters per nine innings.
6. Steven Matz: The hard-luck lefty was tormented by injuries in his first three seasons as a Cardinal, but he looks good early in 2025. It would be nice to see Matz have an injury-free season; it’s not like he wanted to get hurt so many times. In six relief appearances and one start in the new year, Matz has 1.86 ERA in 19 and ⅓ innings.
7. Nolan Arenado: the third baseman is still here, and you have to like his .370 onbase percentage, .430 slug and an .800 OPS. Two reasons for optimism as the season unfolds: Arenado’s bat speed has increased, and that’s making a difference. And he’s been a more patient hitter, drawing 13 walks for a walk rate of 13 percent that would be the best of his career. Arenado’s adjusted OPS is 26 percent above league average offensively. And now it’s a matter of sustaining his first-month upturn. We’d like to see more home runs from ‘Nado. He has two this season but only one in his last 82 at-bats. But he’s on pace to hit more doubles in 2025.
8. Year II of Victor Scott II: The second-year center fielder has displayed an ability to battle his way through brief slumps, and that’s a sign of his increased maturity and experience. He’s a more confident player. He’s shown good range in center field, and his routes to airborne balls are noticeably smoother.
While noting that this left-handed hitter has problems against lefty pitchers – no surprise at this early stage of his career – there are no major complaints from me about his offense. I think more power will come. I think he’ll eventually be more capable against lefties. But Scott is smart, and he learns quickly.
As a rookie last season Scott had a poor .171 batting average and .498 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers, and he’s winning a lot more of those at-bats against them this season. In 65 plate appearances vs. righties this season, Scott is hitting .305 with a .354 OBP and .458 for an .811 OPS. Per wRC+, Scott is 26 percent above league average offensively against RH pitching, and that represents true progress. And he’s 6 for 6 in stolen-base attempts so far in 2025.
9. Lars Nootbaar: I wondered if he belongs on this list, because Noot has batted .170 with a .321 slug in his last 15 games. Not thrilled about that. But I decided to go with him here for a few reasons. It’s great to have a No.1 hitter who draws walks, and Nootbaar’s 18 percent walk rate is the best among MLB leadoff men who have at least 100 plate appearances. And his leadoff onbase percentage (.384) ranks third. We’ve seen some power – four homers, three doubles and a .407 slug – but we’d like to see Nootbaar charge up that slugging percentage. But he’s performed 26 percent above league average offensively as leadoff man, and that’s positive. So he warrants a spot on this list.
Have a nice weekend …
Thanks for reading …
And #LGB!
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns and videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (1120-AM, 104.1-FM), and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by Katie Woo of The Athletic.