Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (9-13) at Atlanta Braves (8-13)
Time: 6:15pm CT Monday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Erick Fedde (1-2, 3.43 ERA) vs Spencer Schwellenbach (1-1, 2.55 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Braves -205, Cardinals +170
Total: 8.5 (over -115, under -105)
Cards Aim To End Skid
The St. Louis Cardinals continue their road trip tonight against the Atlanta Braves.
The Redbirds are coming off a 4-game sweep to the Mets that saw the Cards’ road record fall to 1-9 for the season. The Braves are off to a tough start in 2025, but they swept the Twins in Atlanta over the weekend to raise their home record to 6-2.
Fedde Faces His Nemesis
Erick Fedde makes the start for the Cardinals against a team that has had his number in his career. The right-hander is 0-6 with a 11.03 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in 10 career appearances against the Braves. All of those outings came before Fedde went to Korea and reinvented himself as a pitcher in 2023, so hopefully his struggles against Atlanta are a thing of the past.
Three of Fedde’s four starts this season have been good from a results perspective, but his 11 walks and 10 strikeouts in 2025 is an unsustainable formula if he wants to continue having success.
Swell Schwellenbach
Spencer Schwellenbach will be on the bump for the Braves tonight coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed 6 runs in 4.2 innings at Toronto.
The rough outing was an outlier for Schwellenbach, who has a 2.55 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in his first four starts of 2025. The young right-hander has a 3.22 ERA in 25 career starts, including a 2.90 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his 13 home starts.
My Lean
I have a feeling the Cardinals’ struggles continue tonight, but this price has gotten out of control.
I expected the Braves to be favored in the -125 to -150 range, so to see them over -200 makes Atlanta unbackable for me. I think the books see what I see - Fedde has been fortunate so far in 2025, and Schwellenbach is a stud.
Fedde has a 3.43 ERA for the year, but it’s only a matter of time before the excess of walks and pitching to too much contact comes back to bite him. His ERA estimators do not paint a friendly picture - 4.99 xERA, 4.89 FIP, and 5.50 xFIP.
My lean is for Atlanta to be ahead after five innings, but the -140 price is too juiced for me to make it a bet. I would need -120 to pull the trigger on it.
And that’s something to keep in mind when you’re betting on sports - just because you think something is going to happen doesn’t mean you have to bet it. The price has to be right. If you bet odds like -140 too often, you’re probably going to lose money long-term because it’s tough to catch up from losses where you’re laying significant juice like that.
Lean: Braves -0.5 in the first five innings at -140 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer