Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (9-12) at New York Mets (14-7)
Time: 12:40pm CT Sunday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Sonny Gray (3-0, 3.13 ERA) vs Clay Holmes (2-1, 3.66 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Mets -148, Cardinals +124
Total: 7 (over -110, under -110)
Mets Go For Sweep Of Cards
The St. Louis Cardinals look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the New York Mets when the teams play their series finale this afternoon at Citi Field.
The Redbirds’ 3-0 loss yesterday dropped them to 1-8 on the road this season, and after winning their first three games of the year, the Cards are now losers of 12 of their last 18 overall.
Gray The Streak-Stopper?
Sonny Gray was signed to be the ace of the staff, and he has been exactly that this season with the Cardinals winning all four of his starts.
Gray also served as the stopper by getting the Cards back on the winning track the last time they were on a losing skid. They had lost 4 in a row until Gray beat Paul Skenes and the Pirates back on April 8th.
Mets’ Great Pitching Continues
The Mets have been carried this season by a pitching staff that has a season ERA of 2.27, which is a half run better than any other team in baseball.
Today’s starter Clay Holmes has been effective this season, but he hasn’t pitched deep into games. The right-hander has a 3.66 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 19.2 innings, but he has yet to go longer than 5.1 innings in a start.
My Pick
I’m going to go to the prop market for my pick for this game and focus on Sonny Gray. It has been an interesting dichotomy, with his first two outings of the season resulting in a lot of strikeouts and the last two having many more instances of hitters making contact.
In his first two starts, Gray generated 32 total swings-and-misses and had 15 strikeouts in 11 innings. But in his last two outings, he recorded only 9 total swings-and-misses and just 8 K’s in 12 innings.
I find it interesting though that Gray had a lot of success over these last two starts. He’s given up just 1 earned run on 6 hits in 12 innings with a lot of soft contact. According to Fangraphs, there were 14 hard-hit balls against Gray in his first two starts, but just 9 hard-hit balls in his last two outings. So I don’t think Gray is going to feel the need to change his approach this afternoon.
I’m going to take the under 6.5 on Gray’s strikeouts prop. It’s a little too juiced for my liking at -150, so I’m going to pair it with both teams to score at least 1 run in this game. That gets this bet down to -110 with a Same Game Parlay on DraftKings.
Only three teams in baseball have struck out fewer times this season than the Mets, which is another reason I like the under 6.5 on Gray’s K prop. And I just can’t fathom the Cardinals getting shut out for a second straight game. If they do, it would be a fitting way to end what has been a brutal weekend for our St. Louis area teams.
Pick: Same Game Parlay priced at -110 on DraftKings - Sonny Gray under 6.5 strikeouts AND both teams to score 1+ runs (bet to -115)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer