Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (9-11) at New York Mets (13-7)
Time: 3:05pm CT Saturday
How to watch: FOX 2 (KTVI-TV)
Probable pitchers: Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 3.93 ERA) vs Kodai Senga (2-1, 1.06 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Mets -175, Cardinals +145
Total: 8.5 (over -118, under -102)
Cardinals Hope To End Road Woes
The St. Louis Cardinals look for just their second road win of the season when they face the New York Mets at Citi Field this afternoon.
The Redbirds are 1-7 away from home after last night’s 5-4 walk-off loss to the Mets. They are also 0-4 in one-run games and 0-4 in extra innings contests this season.
Liberatore Looks For Continued Success
Matthew Liberatore hopes to continue his strong run of form this afternoon. The left-hander has gone at least 6 innings in all 3 of his starts this season, including his last outing against the Phillies where he pitched 6 shutout innings with just 3 hits allowed, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts.
Liberatore has an 18/1 K-to-walk ratio this season, and his underlying numbers are even better than his real numbers. His season ERA is a solid 3.93, and that comes with a 3.40 xERA, 1.94 FIP, and 2.66 xFIP
Mets Have Dominant Pitching
The Mets’ pitching staff ranks 1st in MLB in ERA at 2.39. They also have the best starting pitching ERA in all of baseball at 2.61, and today’s starter Kodai Senga has been the best of the bunch.
The right-hander has a 13-inning scoreless streak and is coming off a win over the Athletics in his last start where he pitched 7 shutout innings and gave up just 4 hits and 2 walks with 4 K’s. Senga has a terrific 2.81 ERA in 33 career starts.
My Lean
I’m typically a numbers guy, but I just have a gut feeling the Cardinals win today. It seems there are several points that come during a baseball season when you’re about to write a team off, they pull out a win from out of nowhere - and I get the sense today could be that day for the Cards.
Liberatore is showing tons of promise, and I also like that the Cardinals have already beaten top pitchers this season in Pablo Lopez, Paul Skenes, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Framber Valdez. Senga’s ERA is not going to be in the 1’s all season long, so he is due to give up some runs.
It’s not a play I’m willing to personally bet, but if you’re looking for some action this afternoon, I think the Cardinals at a nice plus money price could be a good way to go.
Lean: Cardinals on the moneyline at +145 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Follow him on X @GamblingDads, and click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Picks = betting the game - minus odds betting to win 1 unit, plus odds risking 1 unit. Leans = no strong opinion, not betting the game. Disclaimer