THE REDBIRD REVIEW
So this is how it’s going to be, huh?
The 2025 Cardinals are going to take us on a delirious ride. Ascending then plummeting. Steadiness, then swerving. Emotional highs, depressing lows. And just when we thought we were starting to figure these Cardinals out … their identity changes.
Good team, bad team, unpredictable team.
An interesting team.
Which brings us to Tuesday’s cold night of baseball in Pittsburgh.
After losing six of their previous seven games including four in a row, the Cardinals faced the likelihood of a fifth consecutive defeat Tuesday as they stared at the fearsome giant on the mound.
That would be Pirates starter Paul Skenes. You may have heard about him. Skenes came into the assignment against St. Louis with a 1.92 ERA in his first 25 big-league starts. And he was bullying hitters at a rate of 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Skenes was, and still is, the most imposing starting pitcher in the MLB today.
And of course, instead of being dominated by Skenes, they conquered him. In an unexpected twist, the Cardinals staged an uprising. In six innings of at-bats, they got to Skenes for six hits and five earned runs and put a 5-3 loss on the Pirates in front of 118 fans – or so it seemed – at PNC Park.
Even though they eked out a couple of wins against Skenes last season, the Cardinals barely scratched him. But this time around, the Cardinals actually defeated Skenes. They got the better of him. This time, Skenes deserved to have the official “L” next to his name in the box score.
Until the Cardinals dug in Tuesday, Skenes had never been mussed for five earned runs in a start. It wasn’t a free for all; only seven of the 26 St. Louis hitters reached base. But the Cards did a good job of taking advantage of their opportunities, going 3 for 7 (.429) with a walk against Skenes when batting with runners in scoring position.
This was an impressive feat by the Cardinals.
What’s the next surprise? What’s the next adventure they’ll take us through? The Cardinals are only 11 games into this 162-game expedition, but the action-packed style of baseball is enjoyable. Even their losses were compelling, with lots of stuff going on. They are not dull.
PARDON MY RANT: Before Tuesday’s encounter, we were treated to another round of a ridiculously annoying narrative. You know, all of this junk about how the Cardinals have Skenes’ number. This foolishness was based on his three starts against the Cards in 2024.
Skenes was officially the losing pitcher in two of the three games. (The Pirates won his other start against the Cards, 2-1, but it went into the books as a no-decision for Skenes.) Anyway, according to the storytellers, the diabolical Cardinals possessed the secrets to defeating Skenes … amazing secrets that no other team possessed.
There was one problem. In his three starts vs. the Cardinals in 2024, Skenes pitched 20 and ⅔ innings and the Redbirds scored three runs.
That’s it. Wow, what a beatdown. (Forgive my sarcasm.) Skenes struck out 23 Cardinals and walked only one. His ERA in the three confrontations was 1.31. His strikeout rate was 31 percent. The Cardinals batted .178 with a .436 OPS against the right-handed ruffian.
In 2024, Skenes had a 2.08 ERA against teams that weren’t dressed as Cardinals. And to repeat, his ERA against the Cardinals in 2024 was 1.31. In other words, Skenes actually pitched more masterfully against St. Louis than his other opponents.
Yeah, but somehow this translated into how the Cardinals “had his number.” Sure. Never mind that the Pittsburgh hitters scored only two runs – TOTAL – in Skenes’ three starts against St. Louis. The Pirates offense lost those games … but hey, no need to pay attention to the details.
Individual won-lost records for a pitcher can be extremely misleading.
SONNY GRAY, HOORAY: The Cards’ No. 1 starter had a dip in his fastball velocity Tuesday but it didn’t hurt him. Gray outpitched Skenes by allowing just three hits and a run (on a solo HR) in his five innings.
Gray toyed with the Pirates and kept them guessing with a fine six-pitch assortment: 20 sinkers, 14 curves, 12 four-seam fastballs, 11 sweepers, eight changeups and six cutters. Gray’s sinker was especially effective, and he added more curveballs (than usual) to the mix.
Gray had four strikeouts in his five innings, but his focus wasn’t on power pitching. It was more about the art of pitching, and keeping the Pirates off balance. Pittsburgh’s average exit velocity vs. Gray was a low 83 mph.
Gray had a 5.73 ERA in his first two starts but rebounded against the Pirates.
THE OFFENSE KEEPS ROLLING: The Cardinals are the only team in the majors that has plated at least four runs in all of their games. According to the StatHead search engine, the 1954 Cardinals set the standard in this area, scoring 4+ runs in each of their first 12 games that season.
RISP SPREE: The Cardinals were hideous in their failure to drive in runs when given a favorable situation to do so. They had a .229 average and .644 OPS – worst in the National League – when batting with runners in scoring position last season. And their repeated RISP flops were the leading cause of inertia for an offense that ranked 12th in the NL in runs per game.
One of the reasons for my moderate-level optimism over the 2025 St. Louis offense was a strong belief in their RISP improvement. Their .229 RISP batting average last season was an outlier; the Cards were highly unlikely to be this bad again in RISP situations.
Through 11 games, the Cardinals lead the majors with a .303 average in RISP scenarios and rank second overall in onbase percentage (.405), slugging (.525) and OPS (.930). The Redbirds are also second in the majors with six home runs in RISP at-bats.
Their approach in RISP situations is clearly better so far in 2025. A key to their success? They’ve cut down on their hacking at pitches out of the zone. Their hitters are content to draw walks in RISP setups, and that keeps the pressure on the pitchers. The Cardinals had a 9 percent walk rate in RISP situations last season. That’s up to 15.5% so far this season.
RANKINGS REPORT: In addition to their RISP excellence, here’s where the Cardinals rank offensively in various categories among the 30 MLB teams:
* 3rd in average runs per game, 6.45
* 1st in batting average, .291
* 1st in onbase percentage, .366
* 2nd in slugging, .465
* 2nd in OPS, .831
KYLE LEAHY: The middle reliever has become an increasingly valuable presence in the STL bullpen. In six relief appearances so far, Leahy has faced 23 batters and given up only one hit, two walks and a run. His ERA is 1.35.
The most impressive aspect of Leahy’s form is his robust strikeout rate. He’s struck out 34.7 percent of hitters faced overall – and has a 42% strikeout rate in his four relief stints this month.
Leahy’s value extends to his ability to pitch more than one inning during an appearance. He’s gone more than one inning three times in his four relief assignments this month including his 1 and ⅔ innings at Pittsburgh last night, Leahy hasn’t given up a hit in his six April appearances, and his April WHIP is a nearly immaculate 0.17.
Among Cardinal relievers, only Phil Maton had more Win Probability Added than Leahy through the first 11 games.
PEDRO PAGES: The Cards starting catcher came through again Tuesday. In the third inning he singled and scored on a triple by Victor Scott II that pushed the St. Louis lead to 3-0. Pages later delivered an RBI (via groundout) in the sixth to extend the lead to 5-1. That gave Pages seven RBIs on the season, tied for third among Cardinals.
Pages isn’t a walking man, but his hitting has real impact. In 23 plate appearances this season he’s batted .304 with a .565 slugging percentage. Four of his seven hits have gone for extra bases (three doubles and a homer.)
We saw improved offense from Pages late last season, and he’s carried that into 2025. Going back to Aug. 16 of last year, Pages has a .475 slugging percentage and .750 OPS in 102 plate appearances. His damage over that time includes 18 runs batted in with six home runs and four doubles.
CARDS CATCHERS CRUSADERS: Ivan Herrera, Pages and newcomer Yohel Pozo have teamed up to supply elite-level offense so far. Their collective numbers are outstanding: .340 average, .380 OBP, .830 slugging percentage, and a 1.210 OPS. All of those figures are the best by a catching group in the majors this season. But that’s not all. The STL catchers also lead the majors (at the position) in WAR (1.0) and RBIs (19) and are tied for 1st in homers (6) and doubles (5). Eleven of their 16 hits have gone for extra bases.
BRENDAN DONOVAN, REDBEARD: Well, maybe it takes a pirate to beat the Pirates. And Donovan sort of looks like a pirate, right? Maybe I watched too many “Black Sails” TV episodes.
“Redbeard” Donovan helped sink the Jolly Roger (and Skenes) with an RBI single, a double, a walk and a run scored. He’s been on fire during the team’s six-game road trip, going 12 for 18 (.667) with seven RBIs over the first five games. Going into Wednesday’s day-ball game, Donovan was tied for third in the majors with 17 hits, and only three MLB hitters had a higher batting average than Donny’s .395.
GREAT (VICTOR) SCOTT: Batting leadoff for the first time this season, the exciting Scott was up to the task with two hits, including a two-run triple in the third that was the most important play of the game based on Win Expectancy. Scott also scored on Donovan’s single in the third, and was the MVP of the St. Louis win over Skenes.
Is Scott impressive, or what? After Tuesday’s spree, Scott is batting .297 with an OPS+ that puts him 42 percent above league average offensively.
And think about this: Cardinals president of baseball ops John Mozeliak recently said that, with a week to go in spring training, he wasn’t sure Scott would make STL’s opening-day roster. Unreal. Scott had clearly earned a spot by then, but Mozeliak still had doubts? Good grief.
BERNIE BITS
1) Nice work by Steven Matz in relief Tuesday
2) The Cardinals are 56-44 since the beginning of last season in games started by outfielder Michael Siani.
3) Free Willson Contreras: He went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts Tuesday and that left him with an .093 batting average on the season. Contreras has struck out 21 times in 48 plate appearances for a strikeout rate of 43.8 percent. Yikes! But I was surprised to see three other qualifying MLB hitters with a worse strikeout rate than Contreras. That includes former Cardinal shortstop Paul DeJong – 18 strikeouts in 35 plate appearances for a strikeout rate of 51.4%.
4) Masyn Winn was 7 for 23 (.435) in his last six games through Tuesday.
5) Sorry, but JoJo Romero is not a shutdown reliever. The lefty had another poor outing after entering Tuesday’s game in the bottom of the ninth inning. Romero faced three batters, retiring one, and was jumped for two earned runs that gave the Pirates a late chance for a comeback. But manager Oli Marmol hustled Romero out of there and turned to Phil Maton to quell the threat.
6) Ominous: since the start of June 2024, Romero has a 5.20 ERA and a glaringly poor 17% strikeout rate in 44 relief appearances.
7) Through their first 11 games the Cardinals led the majors with seven Outs Above Average and were tied for 9th among the 30 MLB teams with four Defensive Runs Saved.
8) Through Tuesday hitters from the Cardinals and Dodgers were tied for the major-league lead in an average of 4.05 pitches seen per plate appearance. The Cards had MLB’s eighth lowest swinging strike percentage (18.4%)
9) Erick Fedde has to be a helluva lot better in Tuesday’s start at Pittsburgh than what we saw during his horrendous outing Friday at Boston.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie