Game Information
Missouri Tigers (22-11) vs Drake Bulldogs (30-3) - NCAA Tournament 1st Round
Time: 6:35pm CST Thursday
How to watch: truTV
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Missouri -6.5
Total: 132.5
KenPom projection: Missouri 71, Drake 65
Tigers, Bulldogs Clash In First Round
The Missouri Tigers meet the Drake Bulldogs in an NCAA Tournament first round matchup tonight in Wichita.
The winner advances to face either Texas Tech or UNC Wilmington in the round of 32 on Saturday.
Keys To The Game
1. Control the offensive glass
The Tigers rank 300th in the country in giving up offensive rebounds, and even though Drake doesn’t have any players taller than 6’8”, the Bulldogs rank 17th in the country in grabbing offensive boards.
The Tigers need to limit Drake’s second chances because if they don’t, they’re going to be defending for long stretches at a time. Not only does Drake play at the slowest tempo in the country, but the Bulldogs play at a slower pace than any Division One team over the last ten years according to KenPom.
Second chance points are momentum plays, so the Tigers can’t allow Drake too many of those opportunities.
2. Win the turnover battle
Drake’s weakness on offense is turnovers. The Bulldogs are 280th in the country in turnover percentage, and Mizzou is 9th in the country in steal percentage. So when the Tigers turn Drake over, they need to push the pace and capitalize quickly before the Bulldogs can set up their defense and muck up the game even more.
Mizzou will need to take care of the ball as well. Drake ranks #1 in the country in steal rate, as they steal the ball away on 14.6% of their opponents’ possessions. The Anthony Robinson II vs Bennett Stirtz matchup looms large in this game.
3. Mark Mitchell needs to ball out
I think this needs to be a game where Mark Mitchell dominates. The Tigers are at their best when they are getting to the rim and getting to the free throw line, and Drake has shown some cracks in that area of its defense. The Bulldogs rank 304th in the country in two-point defense, and 20% of the points they allow come from the free throw line, which is higher than the national average.
Mizzou has an athleticism advantage in this game, and no player on this team is better equipped to do damage in the paint and get to the free throw line than Mitchell. If the Tigers can get the ball inside with Mitchell leading the way, that leads to high-percentage shots at the rim, lots of free throw attempts, and good quality looks from three-point range instead of forced ones.
My Pick
I see this game going similarly to the last time the Tigers played a Missouri Valley Conference team in the NCAA Tournament. Mizzou was a 6 seed up against 11 seed Southern Illinois in 2003, and the Tigers survived 72-71.
I have a feeling Drake covers the number, but Mizzou moves on. That said, I will not be betting that angle.
Assuming he’s healthy, I think Mark Mitchell eats in this one. I don’t think Drake can handle him, so getting plus money on him to score 15 or more points is a bargain in my opinion. I’ll be betting that for a standard-sized play. The uncertainty of Mitchell’s health makes me hesitant to invest more.
Pick: Mark Mitchell to score 15+ points at +115 on DraftKings (bet up to -110)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Disclaimer