Game Information
Missouri Tigers (22-10) vs Florida Gators (27-4) - SEC Tournament Quarterfinals
Time: 6pm CST Friday
How to watch: SEC Network
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Florida -8.5
Total: 160.5
KenPom projection: Florida 84, Missouri 78
Tigers, Gators Clash In Quarterfinals
The Missouri Tigers continue postseason play on Friday night when they meet the Florida Gators in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament.
Mizzou pulled away late to defeat Mississippi State 85-73 on Thursday and move on to face the second-seeded Gators, who enjoyed a double-bye to the quarterfinals. The winner of Friday’s matchup advances to take on either Alabama or Kentucky in the semifinals on Saturday.
Mitchell Uncertain
Mizzou has a big health question mark in this one with the status up in the air for Mark Mitchell. The Tigers’ leading scorer suffered a knee injury in the Mississippi State game, left the game, and did not return.
Missouri was able to knock off the Bulldogs with Mitchell out most of the game and Caleb Grill contributing just 5 points, as Tamar Bates and Tony Perkins led the way with a combined 45 points. However, it’s hard to envision the Tigers keeping pace with the Gators if they don’t have Mitchell. Florida is elite on both ends of the floor, ranking fourth in the country in offensive efficiency and tenth in the nation in defensive efficiency.
Gators Looking For Revenge
Missouri will certainly be facing a team on Friday with revenge on its mind. The Tigers handed the Gators their only home loss of the season back on January 14th, 83-82.
Florida is set up to make it tough for Missouri to hit shots playing for the second night in a row. The Tigers had to spend a lot of energy to get past Mississippi State, and now they face a Gators defense that is third in the country in effective field goal percentage, seventh in three-point percentage, and tenth in two-point percentage.
The Tigers are also in danger of getting killed on the offensive glass. They gave up 14 offensive rebounds to Mississippi State on Thursday, and for the season, Mizzou ranks 296th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage allowed. The Gators are eighth in the country in offensive rebounding rate, so they grab a ton of their own misses.
My Picks
I hate to say it, but this feels like a bad spot for Missouri - even if Mitchell plays. If he doesn’t, this one could get ugly.
The Gators are an incredible 23-8 against the spread this season, and I don’t think they would mind running it up on the Tigers if given the opportunity. So I’ll be betting the Gators to cover.
I’ll also be taking the under here. In addition to it aligning with a conference tournament betting system I believe in, I’m also starting to get concerned with Grill. He’s shooting only 10-for-36 (27.7%) from deep over his last four games, and if you look back over the last eight games, he’s just 21-for-72 (29.1%).
Picks: Florida -8.5 at -110 on DraftKings and Under 160.5 at -108 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Disclaimer