Game Information
Saint Louis Billikens (17-12, 10-6 Atlantic 10) at Dayton Flyers (20-9, 10-6 Atlantic 10)
Time: 6pm CST Tuesday
How to watch: ESPN+
DraftKings Odds
Spread: Dayton -6.5
Total: 144.5
KenPom projection: Dayton 77, SLU 70
Big Game For The Billikens
The Saint Louis University Billikens travel to face the Dayton Flyers in a crucial Atlantic 10 matchup tonight.
The Billikens and Flyers are two of the four teams battling for the final two double-byes in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament taking place next week in Washington, D.C. SLU, Dayton, Loyola, and St. Joseph’s are all tied in the conference standings at 10-6 with two games remaining.
Billikens Need To Protect Ball
SLU is coming off its best performance of the season in a 98-67 blowout win over Loyola this past Saturday. The Billikens shot 58% from the field, 52% from three-point range, and 85% from the free throw line.
Also notably, SLU finished in single-digits with just nine turnovers. The Billikens have struggled with turnovers this season and will need to protect the ball tonight against the Flyers. SLU has turned the ball over on 19.7% of its possessions in conference play, which is a higher rate than any team in the A10.
Dayton Looking For Improved Performance
Dayton laid an egg in its last game, but was able to survive at home in a 74-64 win in double overtime against a 20-loss Richmond team. The game was tied at 48 at the end of regulation.
Here on Senior Day, expect the Flyers to play much better and get after the Billikens defensively. While SLU struggles with committing turnovers, Dayton excels at forcing them. The Flyers rank second in A10 play in defensive turnover percentage, as they force turnovers on 20.0% of their opponents’ possessions.
My Lean
It’s my birthday today, and when my wife asked me what I want as a gift, I said the only thing I want is for SLU to beat Dayton. I’m a SLU graduate and haven’t seen my alma mater win at UD Arena since 2014 - that’s ten straight losses.
As a longtime gambler, this is a classic example of a game where recency bias comes into play. We just saw the Billikens look like the Harlem Globetrotters against Loyola, while the Flyers were only able to grind out 48 points in regulation against Richmond. A casual fan may think that means SLU should win this game tonight or at least cover the number - but I just can’t get there.
We saw this situation play out earlier this season. SLU was coming off its best win of the year over VCU, while Dayton was licking its wounds from a 22-point loss to St. Bonaventure in its previous game. It was a sold-out crowd at Chaifetz Arena eagerly anticipating a Billikens win, but the Flyers proceeded to take a 37-25 halftime lead on their way to forcing 19 SLU turnovers and coming away with a 71-63 victory.
I unfortunately fear a similar scenario tonight with Dayton storming out of the gates early. The Billikens have only suffered one blowout loss in conference play, so I would not be surprised if this game is close down the stretch. But if I had to bet it, I’d take Dayton to come out flying.
Lean: Dayton -3.5 in the first half at -115 on DraftKings
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Disclaimer